February 2005 Issue
The Next Four Years
Jim Baehr '05I could barely see President Bush from where I stood. I was staring over a chain link fence, peering over the heads of thousands huddled together in the cold to catch a glimpse of him and of history on that 20th day of January.
I had abandoned my prime viewing spot to escort a friend through the security checkpoint, but hadn't found her before he began, so I was now far from the Capitol Building. Children played in the snow in front of me. A few dejected protestors stood to my left. The rest of us were silent as the President began speaking.
It wasn’t a long speech. It couldn't have taken him more than twenty minutes to deliver. Still, it struck me deeply (and each time I read it anew) as one of the greatest presidential proclamations ever delivered. It brims with hope and idealism, soundly rejecting the realist ideology that still plagues the darkest corners of our State Department: “America’s vital interests and our deepest beliefs are now one.” In the past, we had propped up dictatorships to maintain an illusory stability. Now, the President proclaims, our national security requires the proliferation of freedom. It is the only force that can undercut the roots of terrorism.
As I sat with family and friends for dinner after the address, it stuck me how differently we see the past four years. My companions at the table were all veterans of the State Department, with extensive diplomatic backgrounds. I picked uncomfortably at my food as they bristled with rage against the President and his radical agenda, at the hopelessness of the quixotic quest into which he had plunged America, this second Vietnam. None can blame them for their views; they know not what they believe. The New York Times is their daily bread, a paper that has been using “quagmire” and “Vietnam” on the second day of the war. That newspaper has sown a steady drumbeat of stories of chaos and confusion, depicting Iraq as a failed state, downplaying and dismissing any uplifting news about the nation. The mainstream media would follow the Old Grey Lady off a cliff if she asked. No wonder the recent elections were such a surprise to so many. To those of us who read Iraqi sources or Australian blogger Arthur Chrenkoff, this hopeful day was more a fulfillment of expectations than shock.
What rich validation, though? To see crippled people dragging themselves to the polls, to see people braving every threat and mortar bomb to vote, people saying they finally feel like "human beings" after a life of beating and abuse and irrelevance, it must move us to tears of joy and sorrow. It has moved some of our opponents to reconsideration. It moves me to see how much four years has altered, and how President Bush now stands as the leader of America's humanitarian party.
I know that statement cannot be made lightly, but as we look at the past four years and those to come, I think we can understand it with ever-greater clarity and conviction.
THE YEARS PAST
The President’s first term will be judged mostly by his foreign policy commitments, efforts that have remapped the globe in the wake of September 11. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq rank among the greatest humanitarian undertakings in this nation’s history. Two new democracies have sprung up in the greater Middle East where before existed only tyranny and poverty. While most international attention has focused on Iraq, changes in Afghanistan have been dramatic. The vast majority of the population voted despite Taliban death threats, and Hamid Karzai’s new cabinet is already deeply engaged in advancing the nation’s interests. Security forces grow more effective by the day, and Karzai has already begun reigning in local warlords. Iraq’s elections, too, have been a manifest victory. Despite the bucking and braying of countless naysayers, the people of Iraq poured forth on Election Day with ink-stained index fingers to make their mark on the ballots for their nation’s future. The candidate slates represented the nation’s diversity and highlighted the increasing likelihood of a prosperous, democratic nation in the heart of a despotic Middle East. Iraq’s neighbors are already coming under increasing pressure to democratize. Saudi Arabia just held its first limited municipal elections. The President lit a fire beneath these allies in his second inaugural: “We will encourage reform in other governments by making clear that success in our relations will require the decent treatment of their own people.”
On domestic issues, Bush has continued to cultivate a culture of compassion and respect for life. The President and Congress have banned inhumane practices like partial-birth abortion, even as Bush has committed to appointing justices who revere the Constitution and its protections of that most basic right to life. The President’s Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives has helped legions of religious and community service organizations receive federal funding for their good works.
So much more, however, remains to be done. President Bush’s reelection raises hope that the next four years may be even more momentous than the last.
THE YEARS TO COME
The President seeks to wield his political power to reshape the domestic policy landscape in his second term as radically as he did foreign affairs in his first. Two pinnacle economic policy changes accompany his reelection. Both promise to make America a society of greater freedom, prosperity, and humanitarianism.
President Bush’s State of the Union Address exhorted Congress to help him “strengthen and save” the Social Security system in the new term. Critics have derided such reforms, pointing out that the system will not go bankrupt until 2033. Opting to solve the problem later, Democrats have declined to offer any reform proposals of their own. The President, though, has chosen to undertake the difficult task of offering solutions now, lest future generations be left bereft of a retirement safety net. The centerpiece of his proposal will allow workers to invest part of their Social Security payroll taxes into safe stocks and bonds—which have averaged a return of about 15.5% and 5.5%, respectively, annually since 1926 (see Ross, Westerfield, Jaffe's Corporate Finance). Private investment has consistently garnered higher rates of return than the current payout model, with lesser long-term risk. The Bush administration estimates that a medium-wage worker who today receives a monthly check of $1,771 would receive one for $2,044 under the new model.
The greatest aspect of the new proposal, however, would be that retiring workers would actually own their own assets, allowing for wealth accumulation. A little over half of Americans today own stocks, but there exists a vast disparity in the net worth of those investment haves and have-nots. The Bush proposal will allow low income Americans to familiarize themselves with the investment model and pass on their savings to future generations. This personal ownership component will empower lower-income Americans to build inheritances and pass on economic benefits to their children. The societal impact will be profound, bringing the promise of the American dream to the least fortunate among us.
The President has also committed to reforming the arcane tax code. The code presently sprawls across 17,000 pages of regulations with 569 different income tax requirements (according to www.scrapthecode.org). The compliance cost of preparing tax forms robs the American economy of billions of dollars in work hours each year. The code remains laden with special interest lard for a litany of corporate clients, as well as a ridiculous marriage penalty. The President recognizes the need for simplification and has appointed a bipartisan commission to evaluate the code for necessary changes.
The President will continue to fill the bench with judges who uphold the Constitution’s original intent as he concurrently works to promote charitable pursuit. While he was unable to establish his Faith-Based Office as a matter of law in the first term, he will again float that legislation in the next four years. With five new conservative allies elected in the Senate, his chances for victory are greatly improved.
Many obstacles lie in the President’s path. Entrenched special interests will challenge him at every turn. An increasingly belligerent opposition will seek to derail every effort. But these are no new challenges, and despite certain media’s depiction of the President as a buffoon, his overwhelming legislative accomplishments grow more impressive by the day. If past is prologue, Bush’s second term will continue to bolster his place among the most audacious and idealistic of American Presidents. As the years pass, increasingly free peoples from Florida to Fallujah will come to remember him with the respect his ideals and conviction demand.